Oil prices recover marginally after plummeting to three-month low

USA drillers added oil rigs last week, according to data Friday from Baker Hughes.

In the last part of this series, we'll take a look at some crude oil price forecasts.

Traders should use the current fall in crude to accumulate long position in oil if prices rebound from the trendline. Subdued refinery activity as operators perform seasonal maintenance in the USA could also put a lid on any rallies.

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The Saudis will continue to be interested in controlling the price of oil by trying to strike a balanced price that would allow them to increase oil revenues on the one hand, and curtail a significant rise in USA shale output on the other hand, Rosneft told Reuters.

The attempts made by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut crude output, in order to increase oil prices, faces a big blow, as US drillers increase the count of oil rigs.

And in 2016, OPEC assembled a coalition of 11 non-OPEC countries, including Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Malaysia, to coordinate OPEC and non-OPEC output cuts. The contract dropped $0.79 to $48.49 on Friday, capping the biggest weekly decline since November.

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A system moving through Friday night into Saturday could bring 2-3 inches of snow to Sioux Falls. Chance of snow in the morning, then chance of snow, possibly mixed with rain in the afternoon.

"The data from the last two reports suggests they were getting nervous", Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in NY, said in a telephone interview.

"There are significant risks the (OPEC-led) deal won't be extended partially because of the main participants, but also because of the output dynamics in the United States, which will not want to join any deals in the foreseeable future". Prices have fallen to the lowest level since before the OPEC deal was announced, as USA inventories climbed to a new record high last week.

"It was Saudi Arabia which initiated the pricing war in the first place with the aim of radically increasing its market share by squeezing out producers of "costly" oil", Rosneft said, in a reference to shale producers. The nation's active oil-rig count has nearly doubled since May to 617 last week, according to Baker Hughes. Production is expected to rise mainly in the Permian and Eagle Ford Shale regions during this period.

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Net speculative positioning is simply the sum of long positions less short positions reported by the CFTC for non-commercial accounts. President Donald Trump has certainly helped to revitalize the industry, with a pro-hydrocarbon agenda and plans to stabilize the USA markets. "Opec is unlikely to react until prices get down to about US$40 a barrel".


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