Severe thunderstorms likely to return today to Upstate NY

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening via tropicaltidbits

Already this afternoon, some severe storms have popped up in northeast Nebraska. This is the first of several rounds of potential severe weather over the next several days.

The National Weather Service says large hail is the biggest threat today, with damaging winds second.

NWS Storm Prediction Center
NWS Storm Prediction Center

The National Weather Service in Omaha extended the risk just before noon Tuesday. Small hail and locally heavy rainfall may also accompany the strongest storms.

Most of Upstate New York is in the marginal, or 5 percent risk, category for severe storms today.

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Tonight storms continue all night with the highest risk of hail, wind, tornadoes before midnight with a flooding threat after midnight.

"As storms continue to push eastward and expand into northern Oklahoma and northwestern IL through the evening and overnight, wind will be the dominant hazard", said McGinnis. This flow, along with insolation and low-amplitude mid-level waves traversing the region, will favor the development of high-based supercells with at least an isolated hail and damaging wind threat during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s and slightly more humid on Sunday. Thus, higher severe probabilities (attendant to categorical slight risk) have been expanded some across portions of northeastern Colorado.

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A round of severe thunderstorms are expected to move into the Kansas City area Wednesday night, bringing the chance for damaging winds and hail. Model point forecast soundings indicate steepening low-level lapse rates and "inverted-V" boundary layer profiles developing across the region during the afternoon, with weak to moderate instability also developing. Will we get clearing and how much clearing (sun) will we get in order for the atmosphere to recover and set the stage for more storms this afternoon?

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